Service Plays Tuesday 12/23/08

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wild Bill

Boise St +2 1/2 (5 units)
Running game of Boise will be the difference in this tilt vs a stingy defense on a neutral field...Boise 35 TCU 24...

BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR: Over 46 TCU-Boise (10 units)


CBB

Illinois Chicago -7 1/2 (5 units)
Kent St +7 1/2 (5 units)
Gonzaga -19 (5 units)
Sacramento State +9 1/2 (5 units)
Saint Marys Ca ( -7 1/2 (5 units)
Kansas +2 (5 units)
Stanford -2 1/2 (5 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly’s Green Sheet

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23, 2008 POINSETTIA BOWL 7:00 PM
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California ESPN Tcu (-2½) Boise State (46)
Many of the early bowl games often lack intrigue but this year the Poinsettia Bowl has a gem with two of the top non-BCS conference teams in the nation. Boise State is undefeated but was left of the BCS roster as Utah also went undefeated. Utah barely beat TCU this season so this will be an opportunity to make a statement for the Broncos. Boise State has incredibly dominant numbers this season, out-scoring opponents by an average of over 27 points per game with only two games all season being decided by single-digits. TCU faced a much tougher schedule and the two teams that beat the Horned Frogs are playing in BCS bowls. Although Boise State has excellent numbers on defense, TCU has incredible numbers on defense with the top ranked run defense in the nation while allowing fewer than eleven points per game and only 215 yards per game. TCU is not known for offense but the Frogs averaged 35 points per game and often the offense is set up in favorable situations from the defense. Everyone remembers Boise State’s big win over Oklahoma two seasons ago but the Broncos have lost outright in three of the last four bowl games. TCU meanwhile is 5-0 ATS in the last five bowl games including a close loss to Boise State in the 2003 Forth Worth Bowl. At first glance it appears odd to see Boise State as an underdog with a perfect
record but TCU has been that impressive. The Frogs have been a fantastic favorite with an 11-3 ATS mark in the last 14 games but Boise State has also excelled in the rare instances that they have played as underdogs . Although both teams are considered among the best of non-BCS conference teams neither has many impressive wins. Boise State won at Oregon but the rest of the schedule was light and TCU lost its two toughest games. TCU 28-21
RATING 3: TCU (-2½) RATING 1: ‘OVER 49’

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

POINSETTIA BOWL
TCU (10-2) vs. BOISE STATE (12-0)
Tuesday, December 23 Night at San Diego,

*Boise State 22 - Tcu 19—In truth, both of these entries might be BCSworthy,
as many gridiron aficionados believe TCU (and not Utah) was the best
Mountain West squad in ‘08, while many WAC sources suggest Boise might be
even better than its last unbeaten squad from ‘06, one that made it to the BCS
and upset Oklahoma in a memorable Fiesta Bowl classic.
While most pundits are quick to note (and correctly so) that the Broncos have
not faced a defense as voracious as TCU’s 2nd-ranked (only 215 ypg!) platoon,
Boise’s high-pressure stop unit is formidable in its own right, allowing only 12.3
ppg (ranks 3rd nationally). With the Broncos’ hard-hitting safeties Jeron
Johnson, Ellis Powers, and George Iloka consistently stuffing the run and setting
a physical tone, we’re not sure the Frogs’ bread-and-butter ground game will
prove the necessary diversion to QB Andy Dalton’s preferred play-action tactics.
And if any OL can slow TCU’s sackmeister DE Jerry Hughes, it’s a Boise forward
wall that allowed QB Kellen Moore to be sacked only 11 times all year. With
plenty of playmakers on offense, and hellbent to erase the memory of last year’s
sleepwalking Hawaii Bowl loss vs. East Carolina (HC Petersen vowed to never
go as easy on his troops in bowl preparation again), the Broncos are capable of
solving the Frogs’ defensive riddle and finishing unbeaten once again.
(DNP...SR: Boise State 1-0)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF

TOTALS:

UNDER (46) in the Tcu-Boise State game (Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 23 in San Diego)—Horned Frogs’ defense among the best in the nation; Broncos’
among the more underrated...

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

POINSETTIA BOWL

This is TCU’s 10th bowl in 11 years & they are 4-3 SU and 4-2-1 ATS (4-0-1 L/5) under HC Patterson while this is BSU’s 9th bid in 10 yrs (5-3 SU/ATS) and they are 1-1 SU/ATS under Petersen. #19 TCU’s
last bowl loss was 34-31 (+11) to #18 Boise in the inaugural Ft Worth Bowl (‘03), the schools’ only previous matchup. It is the only Dec bowl that matches 2 DD win teams and the combined rankings of the 2 teams are the highest among non-BCS bowls (5th overall). TCU led Utah for over 59 mins before allowing a TD pass which cost them the MWC Title. Ironically, that Utes win cost Boise a coveted BCS bid but at least the Broncos get a quality opp here. The Frogs have lost to teams with a combined 24-1 record (Oklahoma & Utah) while BSU won their 6th WAC Title (2nd under Petersen) in the L/7Y and went undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 years. The Frogs faced 5 bowl-caliber tms & went 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS outscoring those opp 22-14 & outgaining them 392-274. BSU faced 8 bowl-elig tms & went 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS outscoring them by 20 ppg & outgaining them by 97 ypg.
TCU has 17 upperclassmen starters including 13 Sr’s while BSU has 13 upperclassmen & 11 Sr’s. TCU plays on a grass HF while the Broncos are 3-0 ATS the L/2Y on the real stuff. TCU went 9-2 ATS as a fav while BSU went 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog including the bowls L/3Y. Not surprisingly BCS schools have courted both HC’s but both have remained loyal for now. TCU has our #31 off and is led by dual threat QB Dalton who made 10 starts (missed 2 gms w/inj) & accounted for 19 ttl TD’s (11 pass, 8 rush). Dalton’s bkup, Jackson, is the tm’s #3 rusher in a limited role. Leading WR Young has more than 3x the ttl rec yds and twice the TD’s of any other rec on the tm & was named 2nd Tm MWC. TCU’s OL avg 6’4” 311 with 3 Sr starters. They pave the way
for 216 ypg rush (4.4) while all’g 18 sks (5.4%). TCU is #2 in our D rankings & has simply dominated all ssn. The Horned Frogs have all’d 7+ pts in just 5 gms & surrendered just 11 ppg (#2 NCAA). The DL avg 6’2” 269 with 3 Sr’s & the cohesive unit has started every game. They are #1 in the NCAA all’g just 49 ypg rush (1.7) which is 25 ypg better than any other team in the nation! The D is led by AA & MWC D POY (1st D POY at TCU S/’02) Jerry Hughes who leads the nation in sks with 14. TCU has the #4 pass eff D all’g just 166 ypg (49%) with an 8-14 ratio. The ST’s unit (#18) avg 27.0 ypr on KR & 11.9 ypr on PR. Ret specialist Kerley is the 4th consec 1st Tm MWC RS for TCU. The
Horned Frogs give up an avg of 19.0 on KR & 7.7 on PR & they have also all’d 3 blk’d K’s TY. Kellen Moore became the first frosh to start at QB in BSU history & turned in a fantastic year en route to earning ‘08 WAC Frosh of the Year honors. Moore led the WAC in pass eff, comp % & TD passes & was 2nd in pass ypg & ttl off. BSU’s OL avg 6’3” 285 with 2 Sr’s & is anchored by 1st Tm WAC LT Woodruff who was the only OL to start every game TY. While RB Johnson recorded his
fewest total rushing yds since his frosh ssn (‘05), he was still an integral part of the Broncos’ offense as he led BSU in rushing & TD’s & is the nation’s active leader in career rush TD’s with 57. WR
Childs earned 1st Tm WAC honors & is #4 in the WAC in rec per game & rec ypg, while WR Pettis nabbed 2nd Tm WAC honors. BSU has our #20 off & our #14 D with 3 players (DE Winterswyk, S Powers & CB Wilson) named 1st Tm WAC. BSU’s DL avg 6’3” 260 with 3 Sr’s & is all’g just 105 ypg rush (3.0) while posting 22 of the team’s 34 sks. Boise all’d just 12.3 ppg (#3 NCAA) & held 8 foes to 10 or less pts (6 to 7 or less). BSU just missed breaking the WAC record for fewest pts all’d in conf play (89) with 94 with the D only all’g 67 of those pts. BSU has our #3 ST unit. K/P Brotzman has range beyond 50 yds & has made all 115 of his PAT’s (128 is WAC record). He is also a rugby-style
P. Wilson (2nd Tm WAC on ST) is a huge threat on PR’s with his NCAA-leading 3 PR TD’s. TCU has been the poster child for defensive teams and they’ve held every opp to 14 pts or less except for Oklahoma, which they held to a season-low 35. Boise, meanwhile, has solid D numbers but their WAC sk’d is much lighter. Boise rates as a slightly better offensive tm having avg’d 49 ppg the L/5 but a closer look shows that they’ve only played 1 D rated in the NCAA’s top half. Expect the Horned Frogs to shut down another bowl foe as they’ve allowed a total of 20 pts the L/2 bowl gms.
FORECAST: TCU BY 13
RATING: 3* TCU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE COLLEGE BOWLS

Bowls are rated 1 through 6, with 1-4 being Key Releases (1 being the highest rating). Games rated "5" are considered "best of the rest". Games rated "6" are light opinions only.

Dec. 23
Pointsettia Bowl (San Diego)
TCU 24, Boise State 17
Rating--2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

COLLEGE BOWLS

Tuesday, December 23rd
POINSETTIA BOWL
Tcu over Boise St by 6

Undoubtedly the best matchup of the non-major Bowl games, why are these
two teams meeting on December 23rd while Buffalo-UConn and Tulsa-Ball
State are the lead-ins to the BCS Championship game? Is Bud Selig behind
this one? All kidding aside, this looks to be a classic confrontation between
offense versus defense. We’ve all witnessed the Boise State offense in that
incredible Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma but let’s not forget about the
TCU defense. The Horned Frogs, along with Texas, held Oklahoma to their
lowest point total of the season (35) and their 2nd lowest yardage mark
(436), just ONE more yard than the Longhorns allowed. In fact, the Horned
ones have held 9 opponents to season low yardage this year, the best in the
FBS. In terms of pedigree, both squads arrive with suitable credentials. The
Broncos are 14-3 SU versus Bowlers over the last three years while TCU is 7-2
SU and 6-2-1 ATS in Bowl appearances since 1998. They tell us good pitching
stops good hitting and defense wins championships. Who are we to argue?
Especially when our wise database tells us that undefeated Bowl dogs of less
than 10 points off an ATS win of more than 10 points are just 1-5 SU and ATS.
Gary Patterson’s 7-1 ATS mark with rest against non conference opponents
seals it. ‘D’ before ‘O’, that’s how we’ll go.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 POINSETTA BOWL Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, CA

BEST BET TCU over BOISE STATE by 16
TCU, 30-14.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Logical Approach

As we have done for many seasons we will have selections on both Sides and Totals in every Bowl game, using a five tiered scale to indicate the strength of selections. Here's how the Star ratings relate to the strength of the recommendations/opinions:
Rating Strength of Selection Units or % of Bankroll
5 Star Best of the Best - Our Strongest Recommendation 3.0 Units - 5.0% of BR
4 Star A Best Bet - A Strong Recommendation 2.0 Units - 3.0% of BR
3 Star A Solid Opinion - Worth a Regular Play 1.0 Unit - 2.0% of BR
2 Star A Slight Opinion 0.5 Unit - 1.0% of BR
1 Star A Lean - We'll Just Sit and Watch ? ? ?

Poinsettia Bowl - San Diego, CA - Tuesday, December 23, 2008
This is one of the most attractive of all 34 Bowl matchups including the BCS games. It is also very intriguing on several fronts as Boise State looks to complete their second unbeaten season in 3 years. Included in their 12-0 season is a 37-32 road win at Oregon in which the Ducks closed the gap late to make the game look close. Boise was in control all the way. TCU stepped up in class but lost at Oklahoma 35-10. But no other team held Oklahoma to under 35 points all season (Texas held the Sooners to exactly 35). In fact, defense is the key in describing this game. In total yards allowed TCU ranked # 2 nationally, Boise State # 15. In points allowed TCU was # 2, Boise State # 3. Against the rush TCU was # 1 (49 yards per game) while Boise was # 15 (105 ypg). Other than Oklahoma no team scored more than 14 points against TCU all season. And other than the 32 points allowed at Oregon and 34 allowed at Nevada (in a 41-34 win) Boise did not allow more than 16 points to any of their other 10 foes. TCU held 7 teams to 7 points or less. Boise did the same to 6 of their foes. Both teams have above average offenses and also each averaged at least 35 points per game, allowing for the seemingly high total. But many of the points these teams scored came as a result of defensive plays. These teams are very evenly matched and this game handicaps as one of the best played and most competitive of all Bowls. Defenses should dominate offenses. TCU does have the better balanced offense and they rarely turn the ball over, losing just 13 turnovers all season. Yet Boise's defense forced 31 turnovers this season, # 4 in the nation at 2.6 per game. Boise is the underdog despite being unbeaten and if the line rises to + 3 they would be upgraded one star. As it is the preference is for a low scoring game and that is where the strength of this selection lies. Look for Boise State to complete their undefeated season by beating TCU 23-16, making BOISE STATE a 2 Star Selection and the UNDER a 4 Star Selection .

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO

POINSETTIA BOWL
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise State O/U 46
Tuesday, December 23 8 pm ET ESPN - San Diego
Recommendation: TCU

While this game features the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked scoring defenses
in the country, there is a significant difference between the two units. Points allowed is a key statistic but beyond those numbers, TCU is the premier defensive group in this contest. The accolades are endless but here are a few that need to be acknowledged in handicapping this game. First off, there were only two teams in the entire country this season that allowed their opponents less than four yards per play: USC (3.38) and TCU (3.77). TCU played five bowl teams this season including Oklahoma, BYU and Utah who all averaged over 35 points and 400 total yards per game. The Horned Frogs held all five bowl bound opponents to season lows in either scoring or total yards. TCU incredibly held Oklahoma to their season low of 35 points and missed limiting them to their season low in total yardage by just a yard as they allowed 436 while Texas held the Sooners to just 435. They stifled their entire schedule yielding 300 or more yards to only the Sooners. They were one of only three teams to record 40+ sacks and allowed less than 50% pass completions and 47.1 yards per game rushing. Head coach Gary Patterson’s group owned a huge 167 per game rushing yardage advantage over their opposition. They’ve been simply dominant in every defensive aspect all season long. Meanwhile Boise has been extremely good at keeping teams off the scoreboard
but they gave up over 300 yards six times. They simply aren’t as overwhelming a group as the Horned Frogs. Postseason participants Oregon and Nevada racked up 464 yards and 385 yards respectively. With TCU being a very diverse and capable offense (215.7 rypg, 201.4 pypg), we expect them to have some success. Veteran triggerman Andy Dalton has been extraordinarily
efficient in the passing game throwing just four interceptions on 272 attempts. His running ability makes him a legitimate dual-threat and Boise did have some trouble with Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick who totaled 311 yards. Boise freshman quarterback Kellen Moore has been equally efficient, throwing 25 touchdowns and only nine interceptions on 370 attempts. The Broncos have a slew of productive skill players in running backs Ian Johnson and Jeremiah Avery plus wie receivers Jeremy Childs, Vinny Perretta and Austin Pettis. All five of those players ranked in the WAC’s top 15 statistically at their positions. Comparing the season-long numbers
between these teams doesn’t show much separation but thorough a deeper examination we give the clear edge to TCU. They’ll use their powerful offensive and defensive fronts along with their superior team speed to methodically control this one. Boise has not seen a defense anywhere near this class and they don’t have enough trickery to get past the Horned Frogs’ strength and speed. Look for TCU cover the less than field goal price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

STATFOX / PLATINUM SHEET

12/23/2008 (211) TCU vs. (212) BOISE ST
The TCU-Boise State game is a battle of non-BCS conference powerhouses. Which team is better though, and did oddsmakers favor the right team? I don’t think they did, and the major difference I see in these teams is that the Broncos have the more dynamic offense. In fact, with a +1.2 YPP edge over TCU offensively, I’d say that Boise has much greater potential for making big plays on that side of the ball in this game. With both teams boasting incredible defensive number, that edge figures to be the difference in the game. The StatFox
Forecaster, Outplay Factor Ratings, and Power Ratings all indicate that Boise State should be the small favorite here, not TCU. Look for a
minor upset. Play on: Boise St +2

TOP STATFOX OUTPLAY FACTOR RATING EDGES:
1. UTAH (+10.5) over ALABAMA 8.5
2. BUFFALO (+6) over CONNECTICUT 8
3. MEMPHIS (+14) over S FLORIDA 8
4. IOWA (-3) over S CAROLINA 7
5. NAVY (+3.5) over WAKE FOREST 5.5
6. BOISE ST (+1) over TCU 5

TOP COLLEGE FOOTBALL STATFOX POWER TRENDS - BOWL GAMES (ATS & Total)

Tuesday, 12/23/2008 (211) TCU vs. (212) BOISE ST
BOISE ST is 52-16 ATS (+34.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was BOISE ST 43.9, OPPONENT 20.2 - (Rating = 4*)

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

Early card for 12/23/08

NCAAF:

1* TCU -3
3* TCU/Boise over 45

Soccer:

3* Chesterfield/Droylsden over 2.5 -135 (English FA Cup)

NBA:

1* 76ers +13
2* Warriors/Heat over 217

NHL:

1* Avalanche -145
1* Maple Leafs -120
1* Panthers -130

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Christian Alexander

NCAA Football Bowl Package
Premium Plays
Matchup: TCU at Boise State
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Tue)

Play: TCU (-2.5 -110)
Line Source: Sports.com
Posted on: December 20, 2008 @ 12:10:08 PM EST



Very interesting matchup as you have the undefeated Boise State Broncos, a program feeling passed over since they are undefeated yet left out of the BCS bowl picture. Broncos fans would be quite to remind you that just a couple years ago they proved they belonged on the big stage when they upset Oklahoma in what has to be one of the greatest football games I have ever seen.

And on the other side you have the 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs, a team that lost at Oklahoma - certainly excusable - and let one slip away at Utah - a undefeated team that basically took Boise State's spot in the BCS.

Despite Boise State not only being undefeated but also winning every game by just over 27 points a game, I'm siding with the two loss Horned Frogs. Why? Two words, DE - FENSE.

Behind the 12th-ranked offense in the nation, Boise State has basically run away from teams this year, putting up nearly 40 points a game.

But the Broncos might have to find a new strategy to get past TCU. That's because the Horned Frogs have the 2nd ranked scoring defense in college football, holding teams to just 10 points a game - only Southern California is better. (7.8 ppg)

Only three times this season was Boise State held to less than 30 points and in all three of those games the Broncos opponents only scored seven points.

In that regard, this game will be different than any other Boise has played. TCU will hold the Boise offense to roughly 20 points, or less, and the Horned Frogs will be able to score right along with them.

TCU is used to winning in this fashion and Boise will be in foreign territory. Advantage TCU.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Packers ( 4) Monday night.

Today it's TCU. The deficit is 145 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mr. A

Poinsettia Bowl
(9) Boise State (12-0) vs. (11) TCU (10-2) Both have strong defenses, but TCU’s offense will have a big task against the Broncos, mainly in the air. Take Boise State in a close battle.

Boise State Broncos +3


NBA
Golden State Warriors +9
New Orleans Hornets -3
San Antonio Spurs -13

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gina

Tuesday, December 23
Poinsettia: No. 9 Boise State vs. No. 11 TCU

TCU -2½


Washington Wizards (4-21) at Charlotte Bobcats (9-19)

Both Washington and Charlotte have been awful this season, but the (4-21)Washington Wizards have won just one game away from home this season. Go with the (9-19) Bobcats at Charlotte Bobcats Arena

Charlotte Bobcats -6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Johnny Guild

Minnesota Timberwolves (4-22) at San Antonio Spurs (16-10)

The gloomy Timberwolves have dropped their last 12 games and have been bulldoze by the superior San Antonio Spurs. San Antonio has won seven straight against the Wolves, including two meetings this year. Take the Spurs at home. The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes against the Timberwolves and 4-0 ATS the last four at AT&T Center.

San Antonio Spurs -13


CBB

Butler Bulldogs +9
Portland St. Vikings +19

 

[billygrey]

Steven Budin-CEO

TUESDAY'S PICK
25 DIME



TCU



Note From Steve Budin:



This price is -3 across the board.



If you have TCU -3, I suggest you buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 so you get the win should TCU only win by three.



If for some reason you get Tcu at -3 1/2 - even after shopping around - buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get the push should Tcu only win by a field goal.



Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.



Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself

Paid Confirmed.

Anyone getting MustWinSports Today??

 

[Leatherman]

The Booooj has a 10 unit play. He's 5-0 in Bowl games so far, hope he stays hot.


San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
Quallcom Stadium, San Diego, California<o></o>
10 units on TCU (-3) over Boise St.<o></o>
Boise St. (12-0) vs. TCU (10-2)- In what is one of the most anticipated matchups of the Bowl season two of this year’s most fascinating teams face off in San Diego. Boise St. comes in looking to prove that they deserved a BCS bid, while TCU is looking for redemption from a late season loss to Utah, which sent the Utes to the BCS rather than TCU. All the talk coming into this game is surrounding the matchup of Boise St’s high flying offense vs. TCU’s dominating defense, however the Bronco’s defense should not be overlooked. They should be able to cause some problems for Andy Dalton and the Frogs offense. Aaron Brown will be critical to the TCU offenses success in this one. If he can make plays in the running game and get the tough yards to stay ahead of the chains, TCU should be able to keep its offense on the field. Boise St. will look to Redshirt Freshman QB Kellen Moore throw the ball to relax TCU’s ferocious run defense, but All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes will make sure Moore doesn’t get comfortable in the pocket. Hughes leads the nation with 14 sacks, and will look to add a couple more tonight on the big stage. If TCU can prevent the Bronco’s from any big trick plays, they should be able to slow down the Boise offense. One X-factor in tonight’s game could be the field goal kickers, both teams have struggled in this area, and with points at a premium, it could come down to which team’s kicker doesn’t leave any points on the field. In the end TCU’s defense will prove too much for the Boise offense to handle and their offense should be able to put up enough points to get the win. TCU by 6-10.<o></o>